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Extreme weather and resilience of global food system

Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system

  • Document Information: PDF 3MB
  • Date: August 2015

This synthesis report presents evidence that the global food system is vulnerable to production shocks caused by extreme weather, and that this risk is growing. Preliminary analysis suggests that the risk of multi-breadbasket failure from extreme weather will triple, going from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-30 year event by 2040. A number of recommendations are made to improve resilience of the food system.

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Review of the responses to food production shocks

Resilience taskforce sub report – Annex B: Review of the responses to food production shocks

  • Document Information: PDF 3MB
  • Date: August 2015

Impacts of extreme weather-related food production shocks can be heightened by protective policy responses that further amplify price volatility and market shocks. Through data analysis, literature reviews and expert interviews this report puts forward potential government and market responses to food production shocks in major crops that might create a more resilient food system.

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Climate and global crop production shocks

Resilience taskforce sub report – Annex A: Climate and global crop production shocks

  • Document Information: PDF 4MB
  • Date: August 2015

This report presents a set of scenarios for weather-driven production shocks that are plausible in the present or near future climate. This work highlights the risks extreme weather poses to global food production, recommending further investigation into the meteorological teleconnections between major food production regions and the probability of coincident shocks in multiple breadbaskets.

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The role of the UK food system in meeting global agreements: potential scenarios

  • Document Information: PDF 8MB
  • Date: May 2021

This scenarios report is based on the outputs of a cross-stakeholder scenarios exercise exploring the role of the UK food system in meeting global agreements. The four plausible food system scenarios highlight the potential opportunities, challenges and trade-offs that could arise during food system transformation, with the aim of stimulating thought and discussion about the future of the UK food system to inform long-term decision-making.

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Country level impacts of global grain production shocks

Resilience taskforce sub report – Annex C: Country Level Impacts of Global Grain Production Shocks

  • Document Information: PDF 3MB
  • Date: August 2015

This report examines the impacts of potential extreme weather-related shocks to global grain production at a country level. Key recommendations include encouraging countries to take measures to reduce their exposure to grain production shocks, and more public-private partnerships to play a role in lessening the impact.

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Future Trade Scenarios and the Impact on Agricultural Economies

  • Document Information: PDF 4MB
  • Date: July 2022

This report from the International Sustainable Temperate Agriculture Network (TempAg) uses a scenario exercise to explore how economic, social, environmental and political drivers may impact future trade, and how these in turn might shape agricultural economies, and their research agendas, globally.

TempAg was an international collaborative research network established to increase the impact of agricultural research in the world’s temperate regions. The network was established in April 2015 with support from the OECD Global Science Forum. The network’s activity was jointly coordinated by the Global Food Security (GFS) programme and INRA (National Institute of Agricultural Research, France).

Severe weather and UK food chain resilience

Severe weather and UK food chain resilience – Detailed appendix to synthesis report

  • Document Information: PDF 958KB
  • Date: October 2012

Following his illustration of the ‘perfect storm’ scenario, Sir John Beddington commissioned GFS to establish a programme of work considering the resilience of the global food system. A report on food system resilience from the UK’s Food Research Partnership was also commissioned, for which GFS coordinated an expert subgroup. This report details the work of this subgroup.

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Exploring the resilience of the UK food system in a global context

  • Document Information: PDF 2MB
  • Date: February 2019

This policy brief, produced by GFS’ major interdisciplinary research programme ‘Resilience of the UK Food System in a Global Context’ (GFS-FSR), describes the importance of enhancing the resilience of the UK’s food system and how resilience thinking could be applied to the UK food system.

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