Taskforce findings were published in four reports: The taskforce Synthesis Report: Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system; Annex A: Climate and global crop production shocks; Annex B: Review of the responses to food production shocks; Annex C: Country Level Impacts of Global Grain Production Shocks.
Climate change
Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system
This synthesis report presents evidence that the global food system is vulnerable to production shocks caused by extreme weather, and that this risk is growing. Preliminary analysis suggests that the risk of multi-breadbasket failure from extreme weather will triple, going from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-30 year event by 2040. A number of recommendations are made to improve resilience of the food system.
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Resilience taskforce sub report – Annex A: Climate and global crop production shocks
This report presents a set of scenarios for weather-driven production shocks that are plausible in the present or near future climate. This work highlights the risks extreme weather poses to global food production, recommending further investigation into the meteorological teleconnections between major food production regions and the probability of coincident shocks in multiple breadbaskets.
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Resilience taskforce sub report – Annex B: Review of the responses to food production shocks
Impacts of extreme weather-related food production shocks can be heightened by protective policy responses that further amplify price volatility and market shocks. Through data analysis, literature reviews and expert interviews this report puts forward potential government and market responses to food production shocks in major crops that might create a more resilient food system.
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Resilience taskforce sub report – Annex C: Country Level Impacts of Global Grain Production Shocks
This report examines the impacts of potential extreme weather-related shocks to global grain production at a country level. Key recommendations include encouraging countries to take measures to reduce their exposure to grain production shocks, and more public-private partnerships to play a role in lessening the impact.
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Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system
This document provides a visual summary of a weather-driven production shock scenario, fictional but plausible in the present or near future climate.
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In 2014, GFS established a UK-US Taskforce on Resilience of the Agri-Food System to Extreme Weather Events in collaboration with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Science and Innovation Network (SIN).
Insight, issue two: Severe weather and UK food resilience
GFS Insight aims to offer a balanced and interdisciplinary representation of the current state of knowledge in a particular area relating to food security. This issue provides an overview of the increasing threat of severe weather events throughout the food supply chain, and potential methods for mitigating these risks.
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Sir John Beddington commissioned a report on food system resilience from the UK’s Food Research Partnership, for which GFS coordinated an expert subgroup.
Severe weather and UK food chain resilience – Detailed appendix to synthesis report
Following his illustration of the ‘perfect storm’ scenario, Sir John Beddington commissioned GFS to establish a programme of work considering the resilience of the global food system. A report on food system resilience from the UK’s Food Research Partnership was also commissioned, for which GFS coordinated an expert subgroup. This report details the work of this subgroup.
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