This synthesis report presents evidence that the global food system is vulnerable to production shocks caused by extreme weather, and that this risk is growing. Preliminary analysis suggests that the risk of multi-breadbasket failure from extreme weather will triple, going from a 1-in-100 year event to a 1-in-30 year event by 2040. A number of recommendations are made to improve resilience of the food system.
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This report presents a set of scenarios for weather-driven production shocks that are plausible in the present or near future climate. This work highlights the risks extreme weather poses to global food production, recommending further investigation into the meteorological teleconnections between major food production regions and the probability of coincident shocks in multiple breadbaskets.
Impacts of extreme weather-related food production shocks can be heightened by protective policy responses that further amplify price volatility and market shocks. Through data analysis, literature reviews and expert interviews this report puts forward potential government and market responses to food production shocks in major crops that might create a more resilient food system.
This report examines the impacts of potential extreme weather-related shocks to global grain production at a country level. Key recommendations include encouraging countries to take measures to reduce their exposure to grain production shocks, and more public-private partnerships to play a role in lessening the impact.
This document provides a visual summary of a weather-driven production shock scenario, fictional but plausible in the present or near future climate.
GFS Insight aims to offer a balanced and interdisciplinary representation of the current state of knowledge in a particular area relating to food security. This issue provides an overview of the increasing threat of severe weather events throughout the food supply chain, and potential methods for mitigating these risks.
Following his illustration of the ‘perfect storm’ scenario, Sir John Beddington commissioned GFS to establish a programme of work considering the resilience of the global food system. A report on food system resilience from the UK’s Food Research Partnership was also commissioned, for which GFS coordinated an expert subgroup. This report details the work of this subgroup.